How EUR/USD Reacts to the Fed Interest Rate Decision: Real Historical Data
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is one of the most volatile scheduled events on the calendar. Instead of explaining the concept, this page shows exactly what happened to EUR/USD after each of the last Fed rate decisions.
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Over the last 3 Fed rate decisions, EUR/USD moved an average of 33 pips in the first 60 minutes.
| Date | Forecast | Actual | Previous | +5min | +15min | +60min | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | 4 | 4 | 3.75 | 4 | -11.9 | -35.7 | Down |
| 2026-07-29 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -1.3 | 7.8 | 31.4 | Up |
| 2026-06-17 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | -5.3 | -2.7 | -32 | Down |
How We Calculate This
Every figure above is measured from raw 5-minute intraday candles for EUR/USD, sampled at three fixed checkpoints after each release and converted into pips against the pre-release baseline price. Nothing on this page is estimated or backtested. The full three-step process, including how the direction badges are classified, is documented on our methodology page.
Why the Press Conference Often Moves EUR/USD More Than the Statement
The rate decision itself is only half of the announcement. The written statement is released first, followed roughly 30 minutes later by the Fed Chair's press conference, and the historical data tracked on this page shows the second half of that sequence is often where the larger reaction actually happens.
Why the statement reaction and the press-conference reaction can point in different directions
The rate decision and the accompanying statement are released at a fixed time, and the initial EUR/USD reaction to that release is driven almost entirely by whether the decision itself, a hike, a cut, or a hold, matched what was already priced in. But the statement's wording is necessarily brief, and it is the press conference roughly 30 minutes later where the Fed Chair fields open questions on the reasoning behind the vote, the committee's tolerance for future surprises, and how incoming data might change the path from here. Markets frequently reprice hard during that Q&A even when the rate decision itself was fully expected, which is why a release that looks quiet at the 5 or 15-minute checkpoint on this page can still show a much larger move by the 60-minute checkpoint, once the press conference is underway.
Why meetings with updated projections tend to move more
Four times a year, the FOMC meeting includes an updated Summary of Economic Projections, commonly called the 'dot plot', showing where each committee member expects rates to sit at the end of future years. Those meetings carry an extra layer of information beyond the rate decision itself, since the dot plot can shift the market's expected path for the rest of the year even when the meeting's actual rate move is unchanged from the prior one. Comparing the pip moves tracked on this page across releases, meetings that included a projections update have historically produced a wider range of 60-minute moves than meetings without one, which is one reason the average-move figure at the top of this page is best read as a baseline rather than a ceiling for any single upcoming release.
Why the reaction can be muted even on a widely expected decision
Not every FOMC meeting produces a large move, and a small pip figure for a given date on this page does not mean the release was unimportant. Often it means the outcome was already fully priced in before the announcement. When the rate decision, the statement's tone and the press conference all land close to what markets expected going in, EUR/USD can trade in a narrow range through the entire hour, even though the meeting itself carried real information for the months ahead. The size of the reaction on this page measures how much the release surprised the market relative to expectations, not how significant the meeting was on its own terms, which is why the same event type can show a wide range of pip moves from one meeting to the next depending on how much of the outcome was already known in advance.
Trade Smarter Around High-Impact Events
These moves can blow through drawdown limits in seconds. Size your position before the next release, not after.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the Fed interest rate decision affect the US dollar?
A rate hike or hawkish surprise typically strengthens the US dollar, since higher rates attract foreign capital seeking better yields. A rate cut or dovish surprise typically weakens the dollar, since lower rates reduce its yield appeal.
What happens to EUR/USD during the Fed's press conference?
The initial reaction to the rate statement often reverses during the Fed Chair's press conference 30 minutes later, as markets parse the tone of the Q&A. EUR/USD has historically produced its largest moves during the press conference rather than the statement itself.
How many pips does EUR/USD move on a Fed rate decision?
Based on the last 3 releases tracked on this page, EUR/USD moved an average of 33 pips within 60 minutes of the decision, though the move can be significantly larger around meetings with updated economic projections (the 'dot plot').
Should I trade through the FOMC decision on a funded account?
Many prop firms restrict trading around high-impact news releases, and the FOMC decision is one of the most volatile scheduled events of the year. Reducing position size or stepping aside through the statement and press conference is the safer approach on a challenge with drawdown limits.
Historical price reactions are shown for educational purposes only. Past reactions do not guarantee future outcomes and are not financial advice.