Prediction market prop firms compared: fees, rules and how they pay
A prop firm for prediction markets sells an evaluation, or a funded account outright, on event contracts priced off Polymarket or Kalshi. We compare the 3 we rank highest on what they charge, what ends an account and how they pay, and quote each firm on the point its home page tends to blur: the trading is simulated.
By John McLaren
Prediction market prop firms side by side: price, drawdown and split
| Firm | Editorial score | Starting priceCost per $1K | Profit split | Largest account | Markets and platforms | Drawdown | Payouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GOAT Funded PredictionsLegal entity in Hong KongRead GOAT Funded Predictions full reviewVisit GOAT Funded PredictionsChecked 6 Nov 2026 | 52 | Starting at $58Cost per 1K $3.28 | 80% to 100% | $100,000 | Prediction marketsGoat Funded Trader dashboard (Predictions) | Trailing (intraday), Static | Every 14 days, Every 10 days |
 Funding PredictsLegal entity in United StatesRead Funding Predicts full reviewVisit Funding PredictsChecked 6 Nov 2026 | 50 | Starting at $0Cost per 1K $3.57 | 80% to 90% | $150,000 | Prediction markets | Trailing (end of day), Static | Every 7 days, On request |
 Refract FundingLegal entity in United StatesRead Refract Funding full reviewVisit Refract FundingChecked 6 Nov 2026 | 45 | Starting at $49Cost per 1K $6.98 | 90% | $50,000 | Prediction markets | Trailing (intraday) | Every day |
- Legal entity in Hong KongRead GOAT Funded Predictions full reviewVisit GOAT Funded PredictionsChecked 6 Nov 2026Prediction markets
- Editorial score
- 52
- Starting price
- $58
- Cost per $1K
- $3.28
- Profit split
- 80% to 100%
- Largest account
- $100,000
- Drawdown
- Trailing (intraday), Static
- Payouts
- Every 14 days, Every 10 days
Goat Funded Trader dashboard (Predictions) - Legal entity in United StatesRead Funding Predicts full reviewVisit Funding PredictsChecked 6 Nov 2026Prediction markets
- Editorial score
- 50
- Starting price
- $0
- Cost per $1K
- $3.57
- Profit split
- 80% to 90%
- Largest account
- $150,000
- Drawdown
- Trailing (end of day), Static
- Payouts
- Every 7 days, On request
- Legal entity in United StatesRead Refract Funding full reviewVisit Refract FundingChecked 6 Nov 2026Prediction markets
- Editorial score
- 45
- Starting price
- $49
- Cost per $1K
- $6.98
- Profit split
- 90%
- Largest account
- $50,000
- Drawdown
- Trailing (intraday)
- Payouts
- Every day
By our editorial score, the best prediction market prop firms are GOAT Funded Predictions (52 out of 100), Funding Predicts (50) and Refract Funding (45), the only three prediction market firms we have approved whose checkout is open, with facts checked on November 6, 2026. All three run simulated or demo accounts on prices from Polymarket or Kalshi, and none says it places your orders on either venue.
Each row reads the firm's prediction market programmes only, with the date of our last check on the row. These firms often state targets and limits in dollars for each account size, so the cards below give them for the entry account of the plan each card reads.
Prediction market check
Prices, orders and payouts, firm by firm
Each row restates the firm's own pages, read on November 6, 2026, with one link under its name. Read the orders column first: it says, in each firm's own terms, whether your trades ever reach the venue.
| Firm | Prices from | Your orders | Paid through | Before you can withdraw |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOAT Funded Predictionssource | Prices fromKalshi | Your ordersDemo accounts (simulated) | Paid throughRise or crypto | Before you can withdraw4 profitable days before each payout (5 on Premium) |
| Funding Predictssource | Prices fromPolymarket | Your ordersSimulated capital, in the firm's own environment | Paid throughRise | Before you can withdraw5 trading days in each 7-day payout cycle |
| Refract Fundingsource | Prices fromKalshi and Polymarket, in one account | Your ordersSimulated: no order is sent to Kalshi or Polymarket | Paid throughUSDC, each request reviewed by hand | Before you can withdrawProfit above a safety buffer ($400 on $5,000) that rises with each withdrawal |
1st among prediction market firms by editorial score
What does GOAT Funded Predictions ask before it pays, and what ends its account?
GOAT Funded Predictions is the prediction market brand of a forex prop firm, and its GOAT plan, the one its score reads, sells a $10,000 account for $58. To pass you make 8% ($800) before a deadline, and only good days count: you need 4 profitable days, then the same number again before each payout. The maximum loss trails your highest equity, moving up with each new high, so a drop of $400 (4%) from that level ends the account, and losing $300 in one day does too, with the day reset at 17:00 America/New_York. No single day may bring more than 30% of your profit. Once funded you keep 80% to 100%, paid every 14 days from a minimum of $100. Its 52 out of 100 rests on price (15 of 15) and payout terms (15 of 20).
2nd among prediction market firms by editorial score
How does the Standard challenge at Funding Predicts work, and how often does it pay?
Funding Predicts sells 3 ways in, and its score reads the Standard challenge, where $85 buys a $10,000 account. The target on that account is $600, with no minimum number of trading days to reach it, though there is a deadline. Your maximum loss follows the balance at the end of each day: $400 below it closes the account, and so does a $200 loss in one day, counted from 00:00 America/New_York. On this size no day may make more than 50% of your profit, in the challenge and again once funded, so one lucky event cannot carry a pass. Funded, it states a profit split of up to 90%, on a payout cycle of 7 days. Its 50 out of 100 is held back most by the rules part, which earns 7 of 25.
3rd among prediction market firms by editorial score
What do you give up for the instant funded account at Refract Funding?
Refract Funding has no evaluation at all: $49 buys a funded $5,000 account on the spot, with no profit target, no minimum trading days, no time limit and no daily loss limit. Nor does it cap the share of profit one day may make. The drawdown is the only rule that ends it. The maximum loss trails your highest equity and never moves back down, so a fall of $250 from your best point ends the account, however long it took to get there. You keep 90% of what you withdraw and can ask for a payout every day, from a minimum of $10. The fee is not refunded. It sits 3rd by score with 45 out of 100, and its price part, which compares fees per account size with the other firms here, earns 3 of 15.
How we picked these firms
We score every firm whose record we approve out of 100, from its published terms and official records: rule fairness, payout terms, price, transparency, track record, legal jurisdiction and regulator warning lists. Only recorded, dated facts earn points, so firms this new earn little for track record, and the price part compares each fee with other prediction market firms only. The picks are the highest scores among prediction market firms whose checkout is open, in the order of our firm directory sorted by score. Nothing commercial counts: no affiliate deal, sponsorship, review rating or upvote.
Do prediction market prop firms trade on Polymarket or Kalshi?
No. All 3 firms in this guide run simulated or demo accounts. The markets and prices come from Polymarket or Kalshi, but none of them says it places your orders there, and Refract Funding says it does not; what you are paid is a share of simulated profit, sent from the firm's own money. Some home pages read as if you trade live, which is why the check above quotes each firm's own words. Because a fill is the firm's model of the order book, each firm writes its own rules for thin or nearly settled markets. The venue's fees and position limits do not bind you; the firm's do, and they can differ from the venue's. A payout, likewise, depends on the firm's willingness and ability to pay rather than on a venue settling a contract, so what a firm asks before it pays matters as much as its split.
Is there a Kalshi prop firm?
Not one run by Kalshi. Kalshi is a prediction market that lists event contracts; it sells no evaluations and pays no profit shares. A Kalshi prop firm is a separate company that prices a simulated account off Kalshi's markets, and two of our three picks do. GOAT Funded Predictions takes every market and price from Kalshi and sells an evaluation in the usual way, with a profit target to reach before you are funded. Refract Funding lists Kalshi markets next to Polymarket's in the same account and has no evaluation at all, so you trade a funded balance from the day you pay. At both, your orders stay inside the firm's own system, and you never open or hold a Kalshi account. One rule matters more for these firms than for others: Kalshi's terms limit what others may build on its data, so a firm that relies on Kalshi prices depends on Kalshi tolerating that use, as the last section explains.
What does a prediction market prop firm challenge cost?
Each of our picks sells several account sizes, and the fee rises with the balance. The plans our cards read start at $10,000 for $58 at GOAT Funded Predictions, $10,000 for $85 at Funding Predicts and $5,000 for $49 at Refract Funding. The fee pays for the rules rather than the balance: nobody lends you the money, and the most you can lose is the fee itself, because losses on a simulated account are never billed to you. So set each fee against two figures on the same account, the profit you must make before you are funded and the drawdown you may use on the way, which every card above gives in dollars. A larger account raises both together, so their ratio, more than the headline balance, tells you how hard a challenge is. A firm with no evaluation, such as Refract Funding, sets no target at all, and the whole account rests on its drawdown.
Why do the rules of Polymarket and Kalshi matter to these firms?
Because the firms depend on data they do not own. Polymarket and Kalshi are the prediction markets whose prices these accounts are marked against, and neither sells or backs the accounts. Funding Predicts' disclaimer denies any affiliation with Polymarket outside the Polymarket builders program, which is open to apps that route orders to Polymarket and is no endorsement. Kalshi's data terms bar using its data to create financial products or services without its written consent, and we found no statement from the firms here that they have it. Regulators are acting on event contracts themselves: the CFTC has proposed rules for them, states are contesting them in court, and ESMA has said that those which are financial instruments fall under the EU's bans on selling binary options to retail clients. As of November 6, 2026 we found no enforcement action against any firm in this guide, which says nothing about whether they may operate.
In the firms' own words
“The accounts utilized for our services are demo accounts.”“using the same simulated-capital model every funded-account prop firm uses”“Every fill is simulated; Refract Funding does not send orders to Kalshi or Polymarket.”Frequently asked
What is a prediction market prop firm?
A prediction market prop firm, sometimes called a prediction prop firm, is a company that sells you an evaluation, or sometimes a funded account outright, for trading event contracts: yes-or-no markets on elections, sport, economics or crypto prices. You trade a simulated balance under the firm's rules, and if you pass, you are paid a share of the simulated profit, as at a forex or futures prop firm.
How is a prediction market prop firm different from a forex prop firm?
Prediction market prop trading follows the same business model as forex prop trading; the instrument is what differs. A contract's price can jump to its final value the moment news breaks, which is why these firms write many rules per event and per day, from caps on the share of profit one day may make to limits on how much you may hold on one market. On a standard contract you buy outright, you can lose at most what you paid for it, unlike a leveraged forex position.
Is there a prop firm for Polymarket?
Not one run by Polymarket, but several prop firms price their accounts off its markets: Funding Predicts prices only Polymarket markets, and Refract Funding mixes Polymarket and Kalshi markets in one account. Our guide to the funded Polymarket account follows one at each firm, from the fee to the payouts.
Can US residents use a prediction market prop firm?
At our picks, GOAT Funded Predictions publishes a list of restricted countries that does not name the United States, Funding Predicts publishes a list that does not name it and Refract Funding publishes no list at all. Check the terms on the day you buy: states are contesting event contracts in court, in cases against the venues rather than simulated firms, so the rules can change faster than a firm updates its list.
Are prediction market prop firms legit?
Each names the company you contract with, but they are young, and their home pages and terms do not always agree. All 3 say on their own pages that the trading is simulated, and none says it is regulated as a broker or an exchange. As of November 6, 2026 we found no independently confirmed payout from the prediction market products of any of them, and no enforcement action against them either. Treat the home page as advertising and the terms as the contract: where the two differ, the terms decide.
FundedFast is a publisher, not a broker, and is not regulated by any financial authority. Nothing on this page is investment advice, and a prop firm challenge is a fee-based evaluation, not an investment. Figures come from each firm's own published terms on the dates shown, and firms change their rules, so check the firm's page before you pay.