How EUR/USD Reacts to Non-Farm Payrolls: Real Historical Data
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is one of the most volatile releases on the calendar. Instead of explaining the concept, this page shows exactly what happened to EUR/USD after each of the last 10 releases.
New to NFP? Read the explainer on what it is and why it matters ->
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How We Calculate This
The numbers on this page are not estimates or a backtest. Every release shown here is measured directly from raw intraday price data around the exact moment the report hit the wire, using the same three-step pipeline for every event this tool tracks. Here is exactly how it works, so you can judge the data on its own terms rather than take it on faith.
Step 1: Pulling intraday candles around the release
For each release date, we request 5-minute intraday candles for EUR/USD from EODHD's market data API, covering a window that starts 30 minutes before the scheduled release time and extends 65 minutes after it. That window is wide enough to capture the pre-release baseline price and the full first hour of the reaction, without pulling in an entire day of unrelated price action that would dilute the signal. The release timestamp itself comes from EODHD's economic-events calendar, which timestamps each report to the minute in UTC. We match that timestamp against the closest available candle to establish the baseline price the market was trading at the instant the numbers were published.
Step 2: Measuring the pip move at three checkpoints
From that baseline candle, we look forward to three fixed checkpoints -- 5, 15 and 60 minutes after the release -- and find the closest available candle to each one. The pip move at each checkpoint is the difference between that candle's closing price and the baseline, converted into pips using the pair's actual pip size. Tracking three checkpoints instead of just one shows whether a release produced an immediate spike that faded, a move that kept building through the hour, or a reversal once the initial reaction was digested -- three different patterns that a single 60-minute figure would flatten into one number.
Step 3: Classifying direction and averaging across releases
The 60-minute pip move also decides the direction badge shown in the table: a move beyond +1 pip is classified 'up', beyond -1 pip is classified 'down', and anything inside that band is classified 'flat', a small buffer that keeps ordinary noise from being misread as a directional reaction. The average-move figure quoted near the top of the page is the mean of the absolute 60-minute pip moves across the last 10 tracked releases, recalculated as new releases roll in and the oldest one drops out of the window. Every step above runs identically for every event on this tool -- only the pair, release type and pip size change.
This means the release calendar dates and the description of what each event measures come from the outside sources linked below, but every pip figure, chart and direction badge on this page is calculated in-house from the raw price data described above, not sourced from a third party. If a release ever looks off to you, the fastest way to check it is to pull up EUR/USD on your own chart around the timestamp in the Date column and compare it against the checkpoints in the table.
Why the EUR/USD Reaction to NFP Isn't Always a Straight Line
Not every NFP release behaves the same way, even when the headline number surprises by a similar amount. Two patterns show up often enough in the historical data on this page to be worth understanding before reading any single release in isolation: reversals inside the reaction window, and conflicting signals buried inside the same report.
Why the initial move sometimes reverses within the hour
The 5, 15 and 60-minute checkpoints tracked on this page exist specifically because the first reaction to NFP is not always the final one. A strong headline beat can send EUR/USD lower in the first five minutes as algorithmic and momentum flow reacts to the raw print, only to partially retrace by the 60-minute mark once slower-moving participants digest the rest of the report and judge the initial move to have overshot. This is one reason the direction badge in the table is based on the 60-minute checkpoint rather than the 5-minute one: an early spike that mostly unwinds by the hour mark is a fade, not a trend, and treating it as the latter is a common way traders misread the release.
Why wage growth can send a conflicting signal
The headline payrolls number is only one line of the Employment Situation report. Average hourly earnings, the wage-growth component released in the same report, can point the opposite direction from the jobs number, and when it does, the two figures can pull EUR/USD in competing directions inside the same 60-minute window. A weak payrolls print paired with hot wage growth, for example, complicates the simple 'weak jobs means rate cuts means a weaker dollar' read, because sticky wage growth is itself a reason for the Federal Reserve to hold rates higher for longer. That tension is part of why the average pip move on this page is a mean of absolute moves rather than a directional average: it captures how much the pair typically moved without implying every release moved it the same way for the same reason.
Why revisions can make last month's reaction look different in hindsight
The 'actual' figure used in this page's forecast-versus-actual comparison is the number published on release day, not the fully revised figure the BLS publishes in the following two months. NFP is revised twice after its initial release, and those revisions can be large enough to make what looked like a clear beat look closer to in-line in hindsight, or vice versa. That is a normal part of how the Employment Situation report works, not a data error on this page: the market only ever had the release-day number to react to, so grading the reaction against the release-day figure, rather than the eventually revised one, is the only way to fairly judge how the market actually responded in real time. It also means a release that produced a small reaction here can get discussed again the following month once its revision lands, even though nothing changes about the price data already shown for that date.
Trade Smarter Around High-Impact Events
These moves can blow through drawdown limits in seconds. Size your position before the next release, not after.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does NFP affect the US dollar?
A stronger-than-expected NFP print typically strengthens the US dollar, since it signals a healthy labor market and supports the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher. A weaker print does the opposite, often weakening the dollar as it raises expectations of rate cuts.
What happens to EUR/USD if NFP misses the forecast?
When NFP comes in below forecast, EUR/USD has historically moved higher in the following hour, since USD weakens on the surprise. The size of the move depends on how large the miss is relative to expectations, and can reverse if other parts of the report (like wage growth) send a conflicting signal.
How many pips does EUR/USD move on NFP?
Historical data is temporarily unavailable. Please check back shortly.
Should I trade through NFP on a funded account?
Many prop firms restrict trading around high-impact news releases, and even where it's allowed, the wider spreads and slippage during NFP make it a high-risk window for an evaluation account. Reducing position size or stepping aside before the release is the safer approach on a challenge with drawdown limits.
Historical price reactions are shown for educational purposes only. Past reactions do not guarantee future outcomes and are not financial advice.