How EUR/USD Reacts to the Fed Interest Rate Decision: Real Historical Data
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is one of the most volatile scheduled events on the calendar. Instead of explaining the concept, this page shows exactly what happened to EUR/USD after each of the last Fed rate decisions.
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How We Calculate This
The numbers on this page are not estimates or a backtest. Every release shown here is measured directly from raw intraday price data around the exact moment the report hit the wire, using the same three-step pipeline for every event this tool tracks. Here is exactly how it works, so you can judge the data on its own terms rather than take it on faith.
Step 1: Pulling intraday candles around the release
For each release date, we request 5-minute intraday candles for EUR/USD from EODHD's market data API, covering a window that starts 30 minutes before the scheduled release time and extends 65 minutes after it. That window is wide enough to capture the pre-release baseline price and the full first hour of the reaction, without pulling in an entire day of unrelated price action that would dilute the signal. The release timestamp itself comes from EODHD's economic-events calendar, which timestamps each report to the minute in UTC. We match that timestamp against the closest available candle to establish the baseline price the market was trading at the instant the numbers were published.
Step 2: Measuring the pip move at three checkpoints
From that baseline candle, we look forward to three fixed checkpoints -- 5, 15 and 60 minutes after the release -- and find the closest available candle to each one. The pip move at each checkpoint is the difference between that candle's closing price and the baseline, converted into pips using the pair's actual pip size. Tracking three checkpoints instead of just one shows whether a release produced an immediate spike that faded, a move that kept building through the hour, or a reversal once the initial reaction was digested -- three different patterns that a single 60-minute figure would flatten into one number.
Step 3: Classifying direction and averaging across releases
The 60-minute pip move also decides the direction badge shown in the table: a move beyond +1 pip is classified 'up', beyond -1 pip is classified 'down', and anything inside that band is classified 'flat', a small buffer that keeps ordinary noise from being misread as a directional reaction. The average-move figure quoted near the top of the page is the mean of the absolute 60-minute pip moves across the last 10 tracked releases, recalculated as new releases roll in and the oldest one drops out of the window. Every step above runs identically for every event on this tool -- only the pair, release type and pip size change.
This means the release calendar dates and the description of what each event measures come from the outside sources linked below, but every pip figure, chart and direction badge on this page is calculated in-house from the raw price data described above, not sourced from a third party. If a release ever looks off to you, the fastest way to check it is to pull up EUR/USD on your own chart around the timestamp in the Date column and compare it against the checkpoints in the table.
Why the Press Conference Often Moves EUR/USD More Than the Statement
The rate decision itself is only half of the announcement. The written statement is released first, followed roughly 30 minutes later by the Fed Chair's press conference, and the historical data tracked on this page shows the second half of that sequence is often where the larger reaction actually happens.
Why the statement reaction and the press-conference reaction can point in different directions
The rate decision and the accompanying statement are released at a fixed time, and the initial EUR/USD reaction to that release is driven almost entirely by whether the decision itself, a hike, a cut, or a hold, matched what was already priced in. But the statement's wording is necessarily brief, and it is the press conference roughly 30 minutes later where the Fed Chair fields open questions on the reasoning behind the vote, the committee's tolerance for future surprises, and how incoming data might change the path from here. Markets frequently reprice hard during that Q&A even when the rate decision itself was fully expected, which is why a release that looks quiet at the 5 or 15-minute checkpoint on this page can still show a much larger move by the 60-minute checkpoint, once the press conference is underway.
Why meetings with updated projections tend to move more
Four times a year, the FOMC meeting includes an updated Summary of Economic Projections, commonly called the 'dot plot', showing where each committee member expects rates to sit at the end of future years. Those meetings carry an extra layer of information beyond the rate decision itself, since the dot plot can shift the market's expected path for the rest of the year even when the meeting's actual rate move is unchanged from the prior one. Comparing the pip moves tracked on this page across releases, meetings that included a projections update have historically produced a wider range of 60-minute moves than meetings without one, which is one reason the average-move figure at the top of this page is best read as a baseline rather than a ceiling for any single upcoming release.
Why the reaction can be muted even on a widely expected decision
Not every FOMC meeting produces a large move, and a small pip figure for a given date on this page does not mean the release was unimportant. Often it means the outcome was already fully priced in before the announcement. When the rate decision, the statement's tone and the press conference all land close to what markets expected going in, EUR/USD can trade in a narrow range through the entire hour, even though the meeting itself carried real information for the months ahead. The size of the reaction on this page measures how much the release surprised the market relative to expectations, not how significant the meeting was on its own terms, which is why the same event type can show a wide range of pip moves from one meeting to the next depending on how much of the outcome was already known in advance.
Trade Smarter Around High-Impact Events
These moves can blow through drawdown limits in seconds. Size your position before the next release, not after.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the Fed interest rate decision affect the US dollar?
A rate hike or hawkish surprise typically strengthens the US dollar, since higher rates attract foreign capital seeking better yields. A rate cut or dovish surprise typically weakens the dollar, since lower rates reduce its yield appeal.
What happens to EUR/USD during the Fed's press conference?
The initial reaction to the rate statement often reverses during the Fed Chair's press conference 30 minutes later, as markets parse the tone of the Q&A. EUR/USD has historically produced its largest moves during the press conference rather than the statement itself.
How many pips does EUR/USD move on a Fed rate decision?
Historical data is temporarily unavailable. Please check back shortly.
Should I trade through the FOMC decision on a funded account?
Many prop firms restrict trading around high-impact news releases, and the FOMC decision is one of the most volatile scheduled events of the year. Reducing position size or stepping aside through the statement and press conference is the safer approach on a challenge with drawdown limits.
Historical price reactions are shown for educational purposes only. Past reactions do not guarantee future outcomes and are not financial advice.