How EUR/USD Reacts to the ECB Rate Decision: Real Historical Data
The European Central Bank's interest rate decision is one of the most closely watched scheduled events for the euro. Instead of explaining the concept, this page shows exactly what happened to EUR/USD after each of the last ECB rate decisions.
Over the last 9 ECB rate decisions, EUR/USD moved an average of 19.3 pips in the first 60 minutes.
| Date | Forecast | Actual | Previous | +5min | +15min | +60min | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.15 | -10.6 | -13.3 | -9.3 | Down |
| 2026-04-30 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 4.1 | -1.4 | -8.2 | Down |
| 2026-03-19 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.15 | -9.2 | -21.1 | 15.9 | Up |
| 2026-02-05 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 1.4 | 4.2 | 15.3 | Up |
| 2025-12-18 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.15 | -2.8 | 8.3 | 5.5 | Up |
| 2025-10-30 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.15 | -1.3 | -13.4 | -33.5 | Down |
| 2025-09-11 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 6.8 | 39.7 | 47.9 | Up |
| 2025-07-24 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.15 | -1.4 | -12.4 | 1.4 | Up |
| 2025-06-05 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.4 | -3.9 | 17 | 36.7 | Up |
How We Calculate This
The numbers on this page are not estimates or a backtest. Every release shown here is measured directly from raw intraday price data around the exact moment the report hit the wire, using the same three-step pipeline for every event this tool tracks. Here is exactly how it works, so you can judge the data on its own terms rather than take it on faith.
Step 1: Pulling intraday candles around the release
For each release date, we request 5-minute intraday candles for EUR/USD from EODHD's market data API, covering a window that starts 30 minutes before the scheduled release time and extends 65 minutes after it. That window is wide enough to capture the pre-release baseline price and the full first hour of the reaction, without pulling in an entire day of unrelated price action that would dilute the signal. The release timestamp itself comes from EODHD's economic-events calendar, which timestamps each report to the minute in UTC. We match that timestamp against the closest available candle to establish the baseline price the market was trading at the instant the numbers were published.
Step 2: Measuring the pip move at three checkpoints
From that baseline candle, we look forward to three fixed checkpoints -- 5, 15 and 60 minutes after the release -- and find the closest available candle to each one. The pip move at each checkpoint is the difference between that candle's closing price and the baseline, converted into pips using the pair's actual pip size. Tracking three checkpoints instead of just one shows whether a release produced an immediate spike that faded, a move that kept building through the hour, or a reversal once the initial reaction was digested -- three different patterns that a single 60-minute figure would flatten into one number.
Step 3: Classifying direction and averaging across releases
The 60-minute pip move also decides the direction badge shown in the table: a move beyond +1 pip is classified 'up', beyond -1 pip is classified 'down', and anything inside that band is classified 'flat', a small buffer that keeps ordinary noise from being misread as a directional reaction. The average-move figure quoted near the top of the page is the mean of the absolute 60-minute pip moves across the last 10 tracked releases, recalculated as new releases roll in and the oldest one drops out of the window. Every step above runs identically for every event on this tool -- only the pair, release type and pip size change.
This means the release calendar dates and the description of what each event measures come from the outside sources linked below, but every pip figure, chart and direction badge on this page is calculated in-house from the raw price data described above, not sourced from a third party. If a release ever looks off to you, the fastest way to check it is to pull up EUR/USD on your own chart around the timestamp in the Date column and compare it against the checkpoints in the table.
Why the Press Conference Often Moves EUR/USD More Than the Statement
Like the Fed, the ECB releases its rate decision first and follows it with a press conference roughly 45 minutes later, and the historical data tracked on this page shows the press conference is often where the larger EUR/USD reaction actually happens. The ECB's Governing Council also spans twenty different national economies, a layer other single-country central banks on this tool do not have.
Why the statement reaction and the press-conference reaction can diverge
The rate decision and its accompanying statement are released at a fixed time, and the initial EUR/USD reaction is driven mostly by whether the decision itself matched what was already priced in. The press conference roughly 45 minutes later is where the ECB President takes open questions on the reasoning behind the vote and how incoming data might change the path from here, and markets frequently reprice during that Q&A even when the rate decision was fully expected, which is why a release that looks quiet at the 5 or 15-minute checkpoint on this page can still show a much larger move by the 60-minute checkpoint.
Why a Governing Council spanning twenty economies can complicate the signal
The ECB's Governing Council includes the governors of every eurozone national central bank, representing economies with different growth and inflation conditions. A statement or press conference that reflects a compromise between faster-growing and slower-growing member economies can read as more cautious or more hawkish than the headline rate decision alone would suggest, part of why the same size of rate move can produce a different EUR/USD reaction depending on how unified the Governing Council's tone sounds on the day.
Why a widely expected hold can still move EUR/USD
Not every ECB meeting produces a large move, and a small pip figure for a given date on this page does not mean the meeting carried no information. When the rate decision, the statement's tone and the press conference all land close to what markets expected going in, EUR/USD can trade in a narrow range through the entire hour even though the meeting still confirmed the Governing Council's policy path. The size of the reaction on this page measures how much the release surprised the market relative to expectations, not how significant the meeting was in its own right.
Trade Smarter Around High-Impact Events
These moves can blow through drawdown limits in seconds. Size your position before the next release, not after.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the ECB rate decision affect the euro?
A rate hike or hawkish surprise typically strengthens the euro, since higher rates attract foreign capital seeking better yields. A rate cut or dovish surprise typically weakens it, since lower rates reduce its yield appeal relative to other currencies.
What is the difference between the ECB's headline rate and its deposit facility rate?
The ECB sets several rates at each meeting, but the deposit facility rate, the rate banks earn on money parked overnight with the ECB, is the one that actually anchors short-term money market rates in the eurozone. The headline main refinancing rate tracked on this page moves in lockstep with it and is the figure most widely quoted in the press, but traders watching money markets closely tend to focus on the deposit rate specifically.
How many pips does EUR/USD move on an ECB rate decision?
Based on the last 9 releases tracked on this page, EUR/USD moved an average of 19.3 pips within 60 minutes of the decision, though the move can be considerably larger around the press conference than around the statement itself.
Should I trade through the ECB decision on a funded account?
Many prop firms restrict trading around high-impact news releases, and the ECB decision is one of the more volatile scheduled events on the EUR calendar. Reducing position size or stepping aside through the statement and press conference is the safer approach on a challenge with drawdown limits.
Historical price reactions are shown for educational purposes only. Past reactions do not guarantee future outcomes and are not financial advice.