How USD/CAD Reacts to the Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Real Historical Data
The Bank of Canada's interest rate decision is one of the most closely watched releases for the Canadian dollar, both on its own and relative to what the US Federal Reserve is doing at the same time. Instead of explaining the concept, this page shows exactly what happened to USD/CAD after each of the last Bank of Canada rate decisions.
Over the last 10 Bank of Canada rate decisions, USD/CAD moved an average of 14.1 pips in the first 60 minutes.
| Date | Forecast | Actual | Previous | +5min | +15min | +60min | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 5.4 | 3.8 | -7.9 | Down |
| 2026-06-10 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 9.3 | 11.2 | 28.2 | Up |
| 2026-04-29 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | -2.4 | -3.4 | -21.2 | Down |
| 2026-03-18 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | -4.3 | -14.7 | -18.6 | Down |
| 2026-01-28 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 9 | Up |
| 2025-12-10 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | -5.1 | -4.7 | -3.2 | Down |
| 2025-10-29 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 0 | -14.4 | Down |
| 2025-09-17 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.75 | 2.3 | 2.2 | -0.8 | Flat |
| 2025-07-30 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 1.2 | -12.4 | -3.7 | Down |
| 2025-06-04 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.1 | -5.1 | -33.9 | Down |
How We Calculate This
The numbers on this page are not estimates or a backtest. Every release shown here is measured directly from raw intraday price data around the exact moment the report hit the wire, using the same three-step pipeline for every event this tool tracks. Here is exactly how it works, so you can judge the data on its own terms rather than take it on faith.
Step 1: Pulling intraday candles around the release
For each release date, we request 5-minute intraday candles for USD/CAD from EODHD's market data API, covering a window that starts 30 minutes before the scheduled release time and extends 65 minutes after it. That window is wide enough to capture the pre-release baseline price and the full first hour of the reaction, without pulling in an entire day of unrelated price action that would dilute the signal. The release timestamp itself comes from EODHD's economic-events calendar, which timestamps each report to the minute in UTC. We match that timestamp against the closest available candle to establish the baseline price the market was trading at the instant the numbers were published.
Step 2: Measuring the pip move at three checkpoints
From that baseline candle, we look forward to three fixed checkpoints -- 5, 15 and 60 minutes after the release -- and find the closest available candle to each one. The pip move at each checkpoint is the difference between that candle's closing price and the baseline, converted into pips using the pair's actual pip size. Tracking three checkpoints instead of just one shows whether a release produced an immediate spike that faded, a move that kept building through the hour, or a reversal once the initial reaction was digested -- three different patterns that a single 60-minute figure would flatten into one number.
Step 3: Classifying direction and averaging across releases
The 60-minute pip move also decides the direction badge shown in the table: a move beyond +1 pip is classified 'up', beyond -1 pip is classified 'down', and anything inside that band is classified 'flat', a small buffer that keeps ordinary noise from being misread as a directional reaction. The average-move figure quoted near the top of the page is the mean of the absolute 60-minute pip moves across the last 10 tracked releases, recalculated as new releases roll in and the oldest one drops out of the window. Every step above runs identically for every event on this tool -- only the pair, release type and pip size change.
This means the release calendar dates and the description of what each event measures come from the outside sources linked below, but every pip figure, chart and direction badge on this page is calculated in-house from the raw price data described above, not sourced from a third party. If a release ever looks off to you, the fastest way to check it is to pull up USD/CAD on your own chart around the timestamp in the Date column and compare it against the checkpoints in the table.
Why USD/CAD's Reaction Depends on the Fed as Much as the Bank of Canada
USD/CAD is a relative price between two currencies, so its reaction to a Bank of Canada decision depends not just on what the Bank of Canada does, but on how that compares with what the market expects from the US Federal Reserve at the same time, along with Canada's close ties to commodity markets.
Why policy divergence with the Fed matters more than the decision in isolation
A Bank of Canada hold can still move USD/CAD if it widens or narrows the expected gap between Canadian and US rates. If the market was expecting the Bank of Canada to cut alongside an unchanged Fed and it holds instead, that shift in the expected rate differential can move USD/CAD by more than the same decision would if the Fed were seen as moving in the same direction at the same time.
Why an oil price move on the same day can amplify or offset the reaction
Because the Canadian dollar tracks oil and broader commodity prices more closely than most other G10 currencies, a Bank of Canada decision that coincides with a sharp oil price move can see its reaction reinforced if the two move in the same direction, or partly offset if they pull USD/CAD in opposite ways. This is one reason the same size of rate surprise can produce a noticeably different 60-minute pip move on different release dates.
Why the accompanying Monetary Policy Report meetings tend to move more
The Bank of Canada publishes an updated Monetary Policy Report with new growth and inflation forecasts at some, but not all, of its scheduled meetings. Meetings that include this report carry more new information than a rate decision alone, since the forecasts can shift the market's expected path for future decisions even when the meeting's actual rate move matches what was already priced in, part of why these meetings have historically shown a wider range of 60-minute moves than the meetings between them.
Trade Smarter Around High-Impact Events
These moves can blow through drawdown limits in seconds. Size your position before the next release, not after.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the Bank of Canada rate decision affect the Canadian dollar?
A rate hike or hawkish surprise typically strengthens the Canadian dollar, since higher rates attract foreign capital seeking better yields. A rate cut or dovish surprise typically weakens it, since lower rates reduce its yield appeal, and the effect is often measured relative to what the Federal Reserve is doing at the same time rather than in isolation.
Why does oil price movement matter for how USD/CAD reacts to the Bank of Canada?
The Canadian dollar is closely tied to oil and broader commodity prices because commodities make up a large share of Canada's exports. A Bank of Canada decision that lands alongside a sharp move in oil prices can see its reaction amplified or partly offset by that commodity move, part of why the same size of rate surprise can produce different USD/CAD reactions on different dates.
How many pips does USD/CAD move on a Bank of Canada rate decision?
Based on the last 10 releases tracked on this page, USD/CAD moved an average of 14.1 pips within 60 minutes of the decision, though the move depends heavily on how the decision compares with expectations for the Federal Reserve's own policy path at the same time.
Should I trade through the Bank of Canada decision on a funded account?
Many prop firms restrict trading around high-impact news releases, and the Bank of Canada decision is one of the more volatile scheduled events on the CAD calendar. Reducing position size or stepping aside through the announcement is the safer approach on a challenge with drawdown limits.
Historical price reactions are shown for educational purposes only. Past reactions do not guarantee future outcomes and are not financial advice.